Tuesday, February 17, 2009

What makes this the worst since 1929?

''This is part of a publication by the Economist, which paints a pretty grim picture for the world economy.... we already knew we were in deep trouble, but love the way they have quantified the extent to which we are in trouble with the use of a few masterly quoted statistics and forecasts''

The current crisis will be the worst since 1929-32. This is reflected in the following string of unenviable
records. If you need arguments in your budget/planning meetings for just how bad things are, here they
are:

• for the first time in 100 years or more, all the G-7 economies will report negative GDP growth;
• more countries will report negative and/or falling growth in 2009 than ever before in history;
• The granting of new loans at the start of 2009 is at their lowest level since 1930;
• US and UK treasury yields are the lowest they have been since 1945;
• UK interest rates at 1.5% (January 2009) are at their lowest level since 1694 when the Bank of
England was created;
• for the first time in 50 years German and Austrian bonds did not sell fully at first auctions;
• US job losses in 2008 totalled 2.5mn – the worst fall since 1945;
• the fall in stock market values globally in 2008 was the worst since 1929;
• the fall in values of emerging markets was the worst since 1945;
• the fall in commodity prices has been the steepest and quickest since records began in 1956;
• the rate of fall in transport costs have been the fastest in history. The Baltic Exchange Dry Index rose
from 2,000 points to 12,000 in 6 months during 2008 but then fell to below 2,000 in just 6 weeks;
• Container cargo trade between Asia and Europe has fallen for the first time in history;
• In November 2008 Japanese industrial output fell 8.1% month on month – the worst figure since
1953 (most global markets reported shocking industrial figures in November);
• the Japanese company Toyota reported its first profit loss in the company’s history;
• In the third quarter of 2007 Volvo trucks sold 41,970 trucks in western Europe; in the third quarter of
2008 they sold 115 trucks (a fall of 99.7%).

And worst of all, lipstick sales are up! It is a well known indicator that during economic crises, lipstick sales (and cosmetic sales overall) do well and often rise. This was first noted in 1929-32 and again in 2008 cosmetic sales held up well. This would seem to be due to women deciding they need to cheer themselves up and perhaps make themselves more attractive for their menfolk. This is a pleasing thought.

Alas the consumption of cheap alcohol also rises during crises, consumed mostly by men. Sadly the men may be more often too drunk to notice how pretty their womenfolk look.

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